The numbers do not tell the same story as the NFL standings. So while Broncos fans will undoubtedly point to the final wins and losses of the 2011 season and cite the popular phrase, “You are what your record says you are,” others will say otherwise. The Denver Broncos have been awfully “lucky” this season, according to ESPN’s Chris Sprow, and the numbers agree with him as he develops a formula that says the Broncos should have lost more than they won this season.

In fact, the Broncos should have 5.8 wins this season (six if you round up, of course). Sprow writes, “Sorry Denver fans, but to paraphrase “The World According to Garp,” in the world where luck isn’t a factor, this case is terminal. With more than a quarter of Denver’s wins ascribed to good fortune, its division is its only fallback.”

The San Francisco 49ers are next on the list among the playoff contenders as the next luckiest team — somehow a fact that doesn’t surprise since a team with Alex Smith and Frank Gore as their offensive core has never made for a winning formula until this season.

As for the Broncos, some will say that Tebow just wins and the numbers cannot measure that. Others can point to the Chiefs’ season last year and say it’s the same thing on a different team. Either way, the Broncos are definitely an anomaly that many are trying their best to explain.

So much of what has made Tim Tebow a football icon is based on the good times, the big wins, the comebacks, the national championships, the awards.

Then there are days like Saturday in Orchard Park, N.Y., where Tebow and the Broncos lost 40-14 to the Buffalo Bills. Tebow threw three interceptions and lost a fumble, with two of those mistakes returned for touchdowns. Tebow said he intends to learn from it.

“I feel I can let stuff go, but at the same time I don’t know that you want to,” he said Wednesday. “Part of being motivated is learning from mistakes, learning from past failures and also learning from losses and having that feeling of disappointment drive you.

“I don’t know if you want to always just let everything

go and continue to be the same person. I think you need to let it eat it at you a little bit, because I think it can make you better.”

Tebow needs to play much better Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs with a playoff berth at stake. Kyle Orton is returning to Denver to play against the Broncos, who waived him last month. But another big story line is Tebow’s performance in the last two games, each a blowout loss for the Broncos. Tebow committed a total of five turnovers in those games.

After running and passing the Broncos to win after win in an option-based offense, Tebow was shut down by the Bills and the New England Patriots. They made Tebow throw from the pocket.

“I’d rather have him in the pocket than running around for first downs outside the pocket,” Chiefs interim coach Romeo Crennel said. “And usually, when he gets outside the pocket, he runs for a first down.”

Tebow said the Broncos’ offensive plan the last two games was fine but the execution was poor.

“They both had schemes,” he said of the Bills and Patriots. “At times we executed very well and at times we executed very poorly. We just have got to be more consistent.”

The Patriots opened in a 4-3 defense and changed to

a 3-4, which the Bills and Chiefs also play. Kansas City has a dominant pass rusher, outside linebacker Tamba Hali (12 sacks), and defensive backs who can win one-on-one matchups. The first Denver-Kansas City game this year, on Nov. 13, was Tebow’s fourth start of the season. The Broncos attempted only eight passes and completed two. They ran the ball 55 times and won 17-10 at Arrowhead Stadium.

“The offense hasn’t changed, the quarterback hasn’t changed and so I think a similar approach will be in place (Sunday),” Crennel said.

Dealing with a four-turnover performance at Buffalo is new ground to Tebow. Even when he struggled earlier this season, he made sure to avoid critical mistakes.

The Chiefs like to use combination pass coverages in the secondary, with two safeties playing deep and man-to-man coverage underneath with cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr. For a quarterback to throw well against that scheme, his receivers have to win battles at the line of scrimmage. Also, Tebow will have to identify the safeties before he throws. And he will have to do it with a playoff berth at stake.

“The thing that was disappointing (against Buffalo) was it was a pretty good game, but you have a handful of plays, four or five plays, that aren’t good ones, that are really bad, then it makes the whole game not too good,” Tebow said. “You can’t have 60 (good plays) and five bad ones, or at least your bad ones can’t have very big mistakes on them. … But it’s exciting (to be in this position). We’re a very motivated team … This is what you play for.”

Jeff Legwold: jlegwold@denverpost.com

For nearly three seasons, there has been little question about David Bruton’s primary role with the Broncos.

He was the special-teams guy, a crucial member of every coverage and return unit. But his role on defense at safety was limited.

He played behind veterans such as Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill in 2009 and 2010 and behind rookies Quinton Carter and Rahim Moore this season.

“It’s definitely tough to get into a rhythm when you’re constantly a backup or looked over. You just have to keep your head down and keep preparing,” Bruton said. “If I get the chance to be in the flow of the game, I feel like it will not only bode well for myself, but also for the team.”

Should a neck injury again keep Dawkins sidelined

in the regular-season finale Sunday against Kansas City, Bruton could make the fourth start of his NFL career. Bruton replaced Dawkins at strong safety for the final three quarters of last week’s game against Buffalo.

“I made some assignment mistakes, a missed tackle in the first seven or eight plays I played,” Bruton said. “But once I settled in … I’m not going to say it was perfect, but everything went a lot smoother and I felt a lot more confident. It was like when I was back in college.”

Dawkins was the only Denver player held out of practice Wednesday, though he was on the field watching his teammates. Bruton, who has dealt with calf and Achilles tendon issues the past few weeks, was limited — as was cornerback Chris Harris (neck).

Carter, who left the Buffalo game because of a bruised lower back, was a full participant at practice.

Party pooper. Kansas City interim coach Romeo Crennel said on a conference call with Denver-area reporters that he won’t allow his players to talk about a duel between Chiefs quarterback Kyle Orton and the Broncos’ Tim Tebow.

“I told my team this morning that it’s not Kyle versus the Broncos and not Kyle versus Tebow,” Crennel said. “It’s the Chiefs versus the Broncos, our team versus their team. That’s how it’s going to play out.”

Pro Bowl approval. Broncos coach John Fox said each of his team’s Pro Bowl selections — cornerback Champ Bailey, outside linebacker Von Miller and defensive end Elvis Dumervil — deserved the honor.

“As a coach, you’re a little bit prejudiced. You always feel like you want more for them,” Fox said. “But all in all, for where we are in the season, I think it was pretty good (representation).”

Offensive tackle Ryan Clady, a first alternate at his position, likely will be going to the Pro Bowl too because Miami put Jake Long on season-ending injured reserve Wednesday.

Footnotes. The NFL changed a Tebow interception against Buffalo to a fumble, ruling that the ball was swatted from Tebow’s hand before he started to throw. The ball was caught by the Bills’ Spencer Johnson, who scored on a 17-yard return. … The Broncos made moves on their practice squad, signing tight end Cornelius Ingram and waiving fullback Will Ta’ufo’ou. Tebow and Ingram, a fifth-round draft pick by Philadelphia in 2009, were college teammates at Florida.

Englewood, Colo. • The Denver Broncos might have to face former quarterback Kyle Orton with two backup safeties if Brian Dawkins and Quinton Carter can’t play in Sunday’s showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs, who are trying to deny Tim Tebow a trip to the playoffs.

Although Carter (hip) participated in the entire two-hour workout Wednesday, Dawkins was held out of the team’s final full-padded practice of the regular season because of a neck injury that has bothered him for much of the month.

Dawkins didn’t address his availability for Sunday but did dismiss speculation that the injury threatens his stellar 16-year career that includes eight Pro Bowls.

Carter wasn’t available during the locker room access period.

Dawkins, Carter and nickel cornerback Chris Harris (neck), who leads all rookie defensive backs with 62 tackles, all were knocked out of last week’s loss at Buffalo.

“I’ll definitely be ready to play this week,” said Harris, who was limited at Wednesday’s workout. “The body feels like everybody else’s does in the NFL at this time of the season but you’ve just got to fight through it and play your game.”

If Dawkins can’t play Sunday, David Bruton would start at strong safety even though he was limited at practice because of a nagging Achilles injury.

If Carter is out, fellow rookie Raheem Moore, who began the season as the starter but was demoted for his poor tackling technique, would get the nod at free safety.

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Facing backups in the secondary would seemingly be a big break for Orton, whom the Chiefs claimed off waivers last month when the Broncos jettisoned their former starter.

“Well, what we look at and what we talk about during the week is we assume everybody is playing,” Chiefs interim coach Romeo Crennel said, “and if somebody doesn’t play, I don’t think that we can ever say, ‘OK, that’s great,’ or anything like that because I know that in the NFL, the guy who steps in is a good player. So, you never underestimate your opponent.”

Still, there’s no denying the drop-off.

Aside from his unparalleled leadership and his knack for deciphering offenses, Dawkins has 51 stops and three sacks and Carter has 46 tackles and a sack.

Bruton has just eight tackles, five of which came last week after Dawkins went down, and Moore has recorded 13 tackles in the last three games after being a healthy scratch against Minnesota on Dec. 4., which followed a month without a single tackle.

“You know what, everybody has to believe and everybody has to stay ready. That’s all you can do,” Moore said. “Get healthy, stay ready. It’s not going to be easy. It’s been a tough season. And that’s why you have to stay ready and believe and when it’s all said and done, whoever’s out there has to make some plays and do what he can to help this team conquer.”

Publicly at least, the Broncos are de-emphasizing Orton’s return to Denver, saying that clinching the AFC West and making the playoffs for the first time in six seasons is their chief mission.

“Even if Orton wasn’t playing on that team, it would still be a big game,” Harris said. “We all know this is a big opportunity for us to go to the playoffs. We’ve got a chance to do something that we haven’t been done here in a long time.”

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Despite what everyone thought would be an easy win for the Denver Broncos, the team lost against the Buffalo Bills on Christmas Eve. Broncos QB Tim Tebow threw four interceptions which the Bills took full advantage of and there was no coming back for Denver.

As would be expected, Tebow’s critics are quick to come back and say they told us so. Tebow is not a passer and will never make it in the NFL. Give him the ability to pass and he sends it into the hands of the other team.

As a fan of Tebow, I have never argued that he has some passing issues. He is definitely a rushing QB and this season, the Broncos have made that work. However, Tebow was beginning to show improvement in his passing game and even critics were beginning to change their tune. Then they lost to the New England Patriots and Tebow’s winning streak ended.

The first loss to the Patriots and QB Tom Brady, I have to say didn’t surprise me. The Bills, on the other hand, I thought the Broncos had in the bag. However, after the game ended, I did a little bit of looking and found a stat that surprised me.

While everyone is picking on Tebow and the fact that he threw four interceptions and essentially helped the Broncos lose the game, there was another QB this season that had the same problem. Back on September 25, the Bills took on another team and won after the opposing QB threw four interceptions. Can you guess who that QB was? Well, it was the one and only Tom Brady.

All the critics sit back and say that Tim Tebow will never be a “Tom Brady.” Well guess what? He already is. Just like Tom Brady had a bad game and a few interceptions, Tebow had a bad day as well. And maybe, just maybe, the Bills have a good defense that can grab those interceptions.

This is Tebow’s first year as a starter and yes, I think he still needs a lot of work. This year his development and practice time with the team was affected by the lockout and I think that hurt him. But, I think, given a full season, Tebow will be able to deliver and take the Broncos much further in 2012.

I am just hoping that New Year’s Day will be a good one and we can beat the Kansas City Chiefs. That, for this Broncos fan, will be the best way to start 2012.

Deborah Braconnier is a former athlete and avid football fan. She is a freelance writer and Featured Contributor for the NFL and Olympics. She has followed the Denver Broncos since she was a child and can usually be found yelling at the television during football season. Follow her on Twitter at @fwcdeborah.

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